threshold of 77% //
The gas car couldn’t compete when it was introduced. We’d spent thousands of years optimizing our systems to accommodate horses, but this new technology wasn’t yet developed. There were few roads, and gas stations were hard to come by. The cars themselves were also unreliable.
It happened again when electric vehicles made a comeback one hundred years later. They had a limited range at first, a limited amount of space, slowed acceleration, and were difficult to charge.
A new technology is almost always in a disadvantageous position. We’re taking a huge risk if we wait for the new technology to be better than the previous one.
We have competitors that will take the time to understand the new technology and, more importantly, create systems around it. You may find it difficult to get back customers. They can have an advantage that lasts a lifetime.
Herbie Hancock began experimenting with electronic instrumentation a decade earlier than many of his peers. This enabled him to produce not one, but two of jazz’s most popular singles.
The local contractor will lose customers if he dismisses electric leaf blowers and weed-whackers as not being cost-effective enough in the short term. He won’t learn what he needs to when technology and systems catch on. The new systems are going to catch-up.
Media companies who refuse to acknowledge that their model of advertising-supported expensive content might not be sustainable are also at fault. How long will Vogue be relevant?
Iterative cycles of new technology will improve the system and also the tech.
It’s our responsibility to understand and learn a new technology or system that is half as effective as an old one.
When it reaches 77% we should consider creating a brand new division, new product lines or a completely new approach.
We’re either too late or part of the problem by the time it catches us up.
